I have already posted about this, reporting it last October: The dates for the splits between the different archaic groups has revised in a paper published in Science last September. Research by Xiabo Feng et al., 2025 suggests that a skull unearthed in China known as Yunxian 2 belongs to an Asian group of hominins known as Homo longi, which encompasses the Denisovans (the clade's name is relatively new and was created to formalize the diverse remains from the Middle Pleistocene of East Asia, including Denisovans). It places the split between humans and Denisovans at 1.32 million years ago (Ma) and proposes that Neanderthals split even earlier: 1.38 Ma. The Homo sapiens are much older than previously assumed: 1.02 Ma.
This is the article: Xiaobo Feng et al., The phylogenetic position of the Yunxian cranium elucidates the origin of Homo longi and the Denisovans. Science 389, 1320-1324 (2025). DOI:10.1126/science.ado9202.
Today's post will look into the implications of these earlier dates for our lineage.
A very early split with a different sequence to it
The accepted view is that the ancestor of modern humans and the group leading to Neanderthals and Denisovans split first, and then, Neanderthals and Denisovans separated into two different groups in Eurasia, Neanderthals heading west, into Europe and the Caucasus while Denisovans headed east into Siberia, Tibet, Southern, Southeastern and Eastern Asia. This paper upends that notion. The Neanderthals split first, then humans and Denisovans (called Longi clade in this article) split.
The authors, considering the very old age of Yunxian2 (~1 million years old) push the roots of Human-Neanderthal/Denisovan split further back ("deeper"): "Both the H. sapiens and H. longi clades have deep roots extending beyond the Middle Pleistocene and probably experienced rapid early diversification." The current dates for the Human - Neandersovan split is around 500,000 to 700,000 years ago, this paper suggests it is older: ".The origin of the longi clade can be inferred to be about 1.2 Ma, slightly older than the Yunxian fossils. The origin of the sapiens clade is estimated to be about 1.02 Ma, also close to the age of Yunxian. The divergence between the longi clade and the sapiens clade is at about 1.32 Ma. The monophyletic Neanderthal clade, widely thought to be sister to H. sapiens, diverged from the longi and sapiens clades at about 1.38 Ma in our analysis."
The paper includes the following dated phylogenetic tree (click here for full size image or click on the image below to enlarge it):
The topology of the tree was the majority consensus of the most parsimonious trees from the parsimony analysis in TNT (34). The divergence time was inferred from the Bayesian tip-dating analysis in MrBayes 3.2 (35). Branch lengths are proportional to the division age in thousands of years (Ka). Numbers at the internal nodes are the median ages, and the blue bars indicate the 95% highest posterior density interval of the node ages. The red half-brackets on the right indicate the ranges of the Neanderthal, longi, and sapiens clades. The numbers in red highlight the ages of division of the three clades. Yunxian is also highlighted in red. Xiabo Feng et al., 2025
The shape of the skull is interpreted by this paper as having a "mosaic morphology, which retains plesiomorphies seen in H. erectus/H. ergaster, Kabwe, and Petralona while developing apomorphies shared with H. longi and H. sapiens" Indeed, Homo erectus present in Eurasia since ~2 million years ago is surely linked to the root of the Denisovan (Longi) clade.
Implications
Neanderthal Dispersal
By having Neanderthal split first, 1.38 Ma, we can imagine the pre-longi/sapiens group remaining in Africa and the Neanderthals heading out of Africa into Eurasia. This clade includes the Sima de los Huesos (SH in the phylogenetic tree, above) specimen, which is old, and linked to Neanderthals, and places it as an early split of that clade. Mainstream Neanderthals appear 781 to 600 kya.
Adopting a position embraced by Chinese scholars (and government), they move Neanderthals further away from modern humans, and place Denisovans (H. longi) closer to us; after all, Neanderthals are Western Eurasians, and Longi are East Asian (Chinese!).
See Qiang Ji, 2021 version for Western consumption, and the Chinese version in The Innovation, Qiang Ji et al., 2021 from which the following image was taken, showing the Neanderthals displaced by Longi as our sister clade:
However Qiang Ji et al., (2021) in their detailed phylogenetic, dated tree (Fig. 4), give later dates than >Xiabo Feng et al., 2025: ~1 Ma for the Neanderthal split, 949 kya for the Denisovan-Human split, and 770 ky for the root of H. sapiens. See below, highlight is mine. Note: OTU = operational taxonomic unit, a name used for genetically similar creatures, analog to a species definition.
" Harbin cranium and H. sapiens shared a common ancestor at ∼949 ka (1,041.41–875.25 ka). The Neanderthal-H. sapiens divergence time in our analysis was ∼1,007 ka (1,114–919 ka). This estimation falls in the range based on mtDNAs for the split between the basal Neanderthal (Sima de los Huesos) and the H. sapiens lineage, but is much older than the estimation based on nuclear DNAs for the splits between the Neanderthal and H. sapiens lineages. However, it is possible that this younger estimated divergence date is an artifact of statistical averaging between “super-archaic” and “recent gene flow” events. The common ancestor of the H. sapiens OTUs included in our analysis is as old as ∼770 ka (922–622 ka), suggesting that the H. sapiens clade has a much deeper origin time than previously estimated. The Eurasian H. sapiens OTUs share a common ancestor ∼416 ka (534–305 ka) old. Outside of Africa, however, the earliest known H. sapiens fossil is only ∼210 ka."
Qiang Ji et al., 2021 suggest that "Sympatric isolation of small populations combined with stochastic long-distance dispersals is the best fitting biogeographical model for interpreting the evolution of the Homo genus...multi-lineages of Homo coexisted in Africa, Europe, and Asia during the Middle and Late Pleistocene. These Homo lineages probably had a strong capability of dispersing for long distances, but remained in relatively small and isolated populations." Sympatric isolation means that even though they shared the same overlapping territory, they evolved separately, not because of physical barriers, but by other ones (genetic, environmental, adaptative, reproductive, specializations), that keep them apart.
What would keep Neanderthals, who during the later period 120-50 kya spanned Western Eurasia from Altai to Portugal, from moving on into America. They could have skirted the Denisovans (who seem to be more adapted to temperate and tropical climates) by living in colder, glacial spots, in Europe and Asia. They could have gone across West-Central Siberia, Northern Siberia and Northeastern Siberia to Bering, and into America. Nobody digs deep enough to find remains 1.3 million years old!. I am not joking, sediments deposit at a rate of 0.10 to 0.12 mm/year (Source) that is 14 times smaller than 1/16th of an inch. Over one million years it represents 120 m of sediment (393 feet). Archaeologists have only scraped the surface (of course, when digging in areas scoured by previous erosion, or by river banks, other elements factor in, recucing sediment buildup.
Neanderthals, well adapted to ice-cold climates, could have easily reached America 1.38 Ma.
Denisovans
The phylo tree built by Xiabo Feng et al., 2025, follows the line set by Qiang Ji. It has older dates, and places the Homo Antecessor at the base of the Denisovan tree, H. antecessor is a Western European specimen, discovered in Atapuerca, Spain. This suggests a very wide territory for Denisovans.
Although their presence has been described in the temperate and tropical parts of Asia, like the Philippines, Sunda, Southern and Southeastern Asia, they also lived in Tibet, and overlapped Neanderthals in Denisova Cave, Altai, Russia, further north, in colder climes, ~200 kya. The Harbin individual, ~146 kya lived in Northeastern China which even nowadays is cold. Xijung Ni et al., 2021, state, regarding the Harbin remains that "the northerly location of the Harbin site also has implications for Middle Pleistocene human adaptive capabilities, since, even in the present interglacial, this region has winter temperatures averaging more than 16°C below zero [3.2°F] The very large size of the Harbin individual (as judged from the size of the cranium) may indicate physical adaptation to such conditions."
This suggests that they too could have moved northeast towards Beringia. Did they reach America 1.32 Ma?
Humans
Homo sapiens is pushed back 700,000 years, from the commonly accepted date of 300 kya to one million years ago. In Africa, alone, isolated from the Denisovans and Neanderthals who left them for Eurasia.
The Gap in the fossil record
The oldest members of the human branches are the Irhoud, the 300 ky old human from Morocco, the Tabun 2 person from Israel, and Florisbad a H. Heidelbergensis from South Africa. But there is a gap of 700,000 years between them and the split date with Denisovans!
Xijung Ni et al., 2021 who proposed an older than the commonly accepted date for the split "(∼416 ka (534–305 ka) old", yet much shorter than the 1 million years proposed by Xiabo Feng et al., 2025, wonder why there is such a gap between the first fossils and the split date. The team favors an African origin for Homo sapiens offers the following explanation:
"There is a large time gap between the hypothetical common ancestor of Eurasian H. sapiens and the actual fossil record, from the Bayesian tip-dating analysis. One plausible hypothesis is that the ancestral population of Eurasian H. sapiens may have diversified in Africa for many millennia before they dispersed into Eurasia. Genetic studies on ancient DNA suggest that the initial genetic exchanges between Neanderthals and H. sapiens occurred between 468 and 219 ka, or between ∼370 and 100 ka, and the introgression may have originated through gene flow from an African source. Interestingly, not only does the estimated time of the introgression event between Neanderthals and H. sapiens roughly overlap our prediction for the age of the common ancestor of Eurasian H. sapiens, but the African origin of the introgression is also consistent with our African ancestral population hypothesis."
Perhaps the fossil record is incomplete because we haven't found the specimens. Humans are intelligent so they were not easy prey or caught in quicksand, they were surely buried. So, unless we dig deep enough in the right places and find burials, we won't find them.
I believe that there was "diversification" within Africa as ancient archaics that indeed lived in Africa (H. naledi) and others admixed with Africans not too long ago, providing them with divergent alleles. But, why imagine an African origin at all?
Middle Eastern Origin of Modern Humans
Below is a possible and probable sequence for the origin of modern humans outside of Africa following the timeline given further up.
The first to enter Eurasia were H. erectus, from the Horn of Africa in Ethiopia, across the Middle East to the Caucasus where we find them in Dmanisi, Georgia. The map below (Map 1) shows the source and the destination, as well as a tentative migration route (red arrow). I deliberately painted their territories in different colors, they would become isolated and mutations would differentiate African from Eurasian erectus.
Map 1. Erectus leaves Africa . A. Whittall ©2026
Then, 1.9 to 1.7 Ma., H. erectus migrated westwards into Europe, and east, along southern Asia into Southeast Asia, Sunda, and China. Their remains have been found in Eurasia. In Africa, they must have also migrated though we have no evidence (poor fossilizing conditions in tropical Africa). Map 2 reflects these migrations and the color changes denote evolving differences between the groups. Ice and mountain ranges guide their migration
Map 2. Erectus migrates across Eurasia and Africa . A. Whittall ©2026
Map 3 shows separate evolution of the H. erectus clades ~1.5 Ma., splitting in smaller groups, losing territory in the north as the Ice Ages progress, living in more isolation, and moving to better regions (arrows). Some groups become extinct. All differentiate and diverge. Asian, European, and Africans remain isolated, perhaps some interchange in Gibraltar between North Africa and Spain. Erectus people move into Northern China. The group in the Middle East will become relevant in the following phase.
Map 3. Erectus diversify, and evolve across Eurasia and Africa . A. Whittall ©2026
In Map 4 the evolved Eurasian ancestors of Denisovans, Neanderthals, and Modern Humans located in the Middle East (yellow-black star) see the Neanderthals move out, north and west into Europe and the Caucasus and replacing the other descendants of erectus there, possibly leading to the Sima de Los Huesos individual. Their territories are colored yellow.
The H. erectus in the Far East have modified their territories, becoming extinct in some sites, and evolving. The African descent of the erectus are still living in small groups, moving around the continent, diversifying, evolving. Color changes imply changes in the populations.
Map 4. Neanderthal dispersal (their territory in yellow). A. Whittall ©2026
Map 5 below shows the split that took place 1.38 Ma, centered in the Middle East (star) with Denisovans heading west along a southern coastal route into Asia, the same followed by erectus over 600 ky before them, and their inroads into erectus territories in Sunda and East Asia. They also crossed Neanderthal regions heading towards Central Asia (Altai) mingling with them. The pink color marks Denisovan areas. Africans continue splitting into isolated groups, some very archaic, exchanging genes occasionally. They are many very divergent groups, some are more archaic than the rest.
Map 5. Denisovan dispersal (their territory in pink). A. Whittall ©2026
The final move is the one involving modern humans (Map 6, below) shows how modern humans spread, 1 million years ago, from the Levant, into Africa, admixing with the until then isolated, separated, divergent, archaics there. Into Europe admixing and replacing Neanderthals, and west into Asia. The orange color marks their initial territory as they advance on Neanderthals (yellows) and Denisovans (pink) admixing along the way.
Map 6. Modern Humans dispersal into Africa and across Eurasia (their initial territory is colored orange). A. Whittall ©2026
This, at least, is my take on the subject. Of course, fossils are needed to validate it, and further (improved) genetic tools and models are necessary too.
A very early appearance of humans, would imply that mutation rates are slower than currently estimated, only 1/3 of the accepted rate (because it would have taken 1 My instead of 0.3 My for our species to evolve. With modern humans around 1 My ago, they could have also moved on, into America at any time over the past million years. The problem is, that nobody is looking for such ancient signs.
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